The European Central Bank released its latest Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) on Friday, revealing that headline inflation forecast for 2025 and 2026 was revised down from 2.2% and 2% to 2% and 1.8%, respectively. Expectations for 2027 headline inflation remained unchanged at 2%.
Meanwhile, estimates for core inflation, which excludes energy and food, were revised down by 0.1 percentage point for both 2026 and 2027, and now stand at 2%. In 2025 and 2026, survey respondents said they expect the real gross domestic product (GDP) growth to be at 1.1%, while in 2027 the figure is anticipated to stand at 1.4%.
When it comes to the unemployment rate, the digits were broadly unchanged. In 2025 and 2026, the unemployment rate is expected to be at 6.3%, while for 2027, the number is slightly lower, coming in at 6.2%.
