Fitch Ratings revised down its 2025 oil price assumptions on Wednesday, citing weaker global growth from trade tensions and a planned increase in OPEC+ production. The agency now expects Brent to average $65 per barrel, down from $70, and WTI to reach $60, down from $65.
The updated forecast reflects expectations of oversupply in 2025, with global output potentially rising by more than 1.6 million barrels per day if OPEC+ proceeds with its May schedule to unwind voluntary cuts. Additional uncertainty comes from producers exceeding their quotas and possible impacts from new US sanctions on Iran and Venezuela.
Despite the revised short-term outlook, Fitch left its medium-term and mid-cycle oil and gas assumptions unchanged. In the US, lower prices could discourage new drilling activity, as many producers need at least $65 per barrel to operate without losses, according to industry surveys.
