Fitch Ratings Inc. cautioned on Friday that higher oil prices in the event of potential disruptions in the crude supply as a result of the Middle East crisis could undermine global economic growth while, on the other hand, keeping inflation elevated.
According to Fitch's projections, the global gross domestic product could be lower by 0.4 percentage points in 2024 and by 0.1 percentage points in 2025 compared to its last forecast published before the war between Israel and Hamas started. Specifically, should restrictions on oil supply have an impact, prices might reach an average of $120 per barrel in 2024 and $100 per barrel in the following year.
"An oil price shock related to the Middle East conflict could be accompanied by tighter financial conditions, lower business and consumer confidence, and corrections in financial markets," Fitch warned.