The Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) estimated global economic growth in its interim report on Monday at 3.1% in 2025, down from 3.3% previously. The 2026 growth is seen at 3% compared to 3.3% in its previous report. The United States is forecast to grow 2.2% in 2025, down from 2.4% previously, while China's growth was revised up from 4.7% to 4.8%.
The OECD noted that high inflation is expected to remain above central bank targets in many countries in 2026, averaging 3.8% in 2025 and 3.2% in 2026 in the G20 economies. It also warned that a trade war escalation would bring "substantial risks" to the baseline projections, including global output falling by around 0.3% by the third year and inflation rising by an average of 0.4 percentage points per year in the first three years. The US could suffer a 0.75 percentage-point cut to its growth outlook by the third year, while the Eurozone's baseline would be cut by 0.17 percentage points and China's by 0.1 percentage point.
