The World Trade Organization (WTO) revised down its global merchandise trade forecast for 2025 in a report on Wednesday from a 3% growth to a 0.2% contraction. The decline will be led by North America, whose exports are seen plummeting 12.6%.
The WTO warned that the global trade in goods could plunge as much as 1.5% if the trade war escalates and there is a "broader spillover of policy uncertainty." Meanwhile, the trade in services is expected to rise by 4%, which is still around 1 percentage point less than previously projected. "The recent de-escalation of tariff tensions has temporarily relieved some of the pressure on global trade. However, the enduring uncertainty threatens to act as a brake on global growth, with severe negative consequences for the world, the most vulnerable economies in particular," WTO Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala said.
