Fitch Ratings presented on Wednesday a neutral outlook for greater China in 2024. According to the report, the region, including mainland China, Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan, is expected to face hurdles such as subdued external demand and issues in the Chinese property sector.
Despite these factors, growth rates are expected to remain relatively steady, with mainland China's growth projected to moderate to 4.6% from just over 5% in 2023. Fiscal policy is likely to play a significant role in managing risks, with the potential for wider fiscal deficits and increased debt ratios.
Hong Kong's growth is expected to ease slightly to 3.0%, continuing its post-Covid recovery, while Macao is forecasted to see robust growth at 15%, driven by a surge in gaming revenues. Taiwan's economy is projected to experience a gradual recovery, with growth increasing to 2.8%, buoyed by an upturn in the global technology cycle. The report highlights that while the overall fiscal metrics have deteriorated since 2019, the region's economies generally maintain solid fiscal and external credit buffers to navigate these challenges.
