Political agitation in France will face another episode on Sunday, a week after the first round of legislative elections. The first round, held on June 30, revealed a significant and expected shift in the French political landscape after the European Union election, with the far-right National Rally (RN) and its allies leading with 33.21% of the vote. This was followed by the left-wing New Popular Front (NFP) with 28.14%, President Emmanuel Macron's centrist coalition Ensemble with 21.28%, and the conservative Republicans and other right-leaning candidates with 10.17%.
The turnout was notable at 66.71%, the highest since 1997. However, out of the 577 seats in the National Assembly, just 76 were directly decided, with RN securing 38, NFP 32, Ensemble 2, and other parties 4.
This has set the stage for a wave of strategies ahead of the second round in which massive withdrawals of candidates have reshaped the electoral map, seeking to consolidate the left-wing and centrist vote against RN in round two. After the deadline on Tuesday, Le Monde counted 224 candidates from left and center parties who had withdrawn from the race. This maneuver significantly reduced the number of three-way races or what has been called "tripolarization of the electorate," which would be the division of voters into three distinct and relatively equal blocs, rather than the traditional two.
Marine Le Pen, the leader of RN, criticized this massive withdrawal, calling it an orchestrated effort to prevent her party from gaining a majority. However, she also mentioned that even if her party doesn't quite reach the 289-seat majority, it could still maneuver effectively. In a French radio interview, she suggested that obtaining approximately 270 seats would provide her party the power to start negotiations and form alliances to support RN's agenda.
French Prime Minister Gabriel Attal urged voters to block RN, framing the election as a crucial moment for the country's democratic values. Macron, addressing the electorate, emphasized that the vote is not about his presidency but about who should govern France. "You can trust me to act until May 2027 as your president, protector at every moment of our republic, our values, respectful of pluralism and your choices, at your service and that of the nation," Macron said in a letter late June.
The upcoming second round on July 7 could result in a hung parliament, likely leading to an institutional deadlock. This scenario would challenge Macron's ability to govern effectively, potentially setting the stage for another election next year.
Despite RN's lead, projections suggest it may fall short of the 289 seats needed for an absolute majority. Polls indicate RN could win between 230 and 280 seats. In contrast, the NFP is expected to secure 125 to 165 seats, and Ensemble is anticipated to capture only 70 to 100 seats, a significant decline from the 245 seats won in the previous election.
